The numbers
There is a 62 percent chance of El Niño forming this summer, according to NOAA. If this occurs, it could lead to a significant increase in global temperatures and more extreme weather events, including flooding.
A typical El Niño event results in a temporary increase of 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius in the global mean temperature. However, a ‘super’ El Niño, which is informally used to describe a particularly strong El Niño, is characterized by sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2 degrees Celsius.
For El Niño conditions to develop, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean must warm by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods. The equatorial Pacific is expected to transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño over the summer, raising concerns among meteorologists.
AccuWeather forecasters estimate a 15 percent chance that this year’s El Niño could intensify into a rare ‘super El Niño.’ If such a phenomenon occurs, it could lead to warmer, drier conditions in the northern United States and wetter, cooler conditions in the south.
The last El Niño event occurred from May 2023 through March 2024, contributing to record-breaking heat across the globe. The World Meteorological Organization recently stated that the planet’s climate is now “more out of balance than at any time in observed history.” This alarming assessment underscores the potential impact of a super El Niño.
Meteorologists warn that a strong El Niño could contribute to additional global heat records. Columbia University scientists noted, “It takes time to recharge the ‘battery’ of heat in the East Pacific, but perhaps human-made warming is decreasing the time needed to recharge the battery.” This suggests that the effects of climate change may exacerbate the impacts of El Niño events.
Details remain unconfirmed regarding the potential strength of the upcoming El Niño, but experts like Ben Noll have indicated that “a significant westerly wind burst is possible from this pattern.” Chad Merrill added, “Both of those years did become very strong El Niño years, super El Niño events,” hinting at the historical patterns that could repeat this summer.
