On February 28, regional tensions escalated significantly when the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran. This development set the stage for a dramatic surge in WTI crude oil prices.
In the following days, WTI crude surged more than 10%, reaching $110.31 per barrel, following a threat from US President Donald Trump to escalate military actions. Trump stated, “We’re going to bring them back to the Stone Ages, where they belong.” This rhetoric heightened fears of supply disruptions.
As the situation unfolded, Brent crude also saw a notable increase, jumping nearly 8% to $108.90 per barrel. The market reacted swiftly to the geopolitical climate, with trading volumes reflecting heightened activity.
On a particularly volatile trading day, WTI crude oil prices surged 13%, surpassing $112 per barrel. The price opened at $99.15 and climbed to a peak of $112.01 during the session. This marked one of the most significant single-day movements in WTI crude oil history.
Trading volume reached approximately 2.3 million contracts, a 45% increase over the 30-day average, indicating strong market engagement. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a drawdown in crude inventories of 4.2 million barrels, further fueling concerns about supply.
Refinery utilization rates increased to 92.8%, suggesting that refineries are ramping up operations to meet demand. Dr. Evelyn Reed commented, “Today’s surge represents more than temporary volatility. We’re witnessing a fundamental repricing of crude oil based on structural supply constraints that may persist through 2025.”
Michael Torres noted that the market had been coiled like a spring below $102, and once that level broke, algorithmic systems drove the explosive move higher. The timing of these developments proved especially problematic, coinciding with seasonal maintenance periods at several major refineries.
As of now, WTI is approximately 35% above its 200-day moving average, with Brent crude rising 11.8% to $115.50 per barrel, maintaining its premium over WTI. The spread between WTI and Brent has narrowed slightly to $3.49.
This surge in crude oil prices is significant for global markets, impacting everything from fuel prices to inflation rates. Stakeholders are closely monitoring the situation as geopolitical tensions continue to unfold.
