Jody Demling, a horse racing expert, is fading Renegade, the morning-line favorite at 4-1, for the Kentucky Derby 2026 at Churchill Downs. The race is set to go to post at 6:57 p.m. ET.
Demling cites historical trends and challenges posed by Renegade’s post position. He notes that the favorite has not won the Kentucky Derby since 2018.
Current odds:
- Renegade: 4-1
- Further Ado: 6-1
- Commandment: 6-1
- Chief Wallabee: 8-1
- Longshots (Intrepido, Six Speed, Great White): 50-1
Demling has accurately predicted the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 12 times in the last 17 years. He believes Renegade faces significant hurdles.
Demling commented, “Renegade has history, in multiple aspects, working against him for Saturday’s race.” He ranks Danon Bourbon higher among Japanese entrants due to speed.
Key competitors:
Danon Bourbon — won the Fukuryu Stakes by 10 lengths and aims to be the first horse from Japan to win this prestigious event. and Irad Ortiz — despite over 4,000 career wins, he is currently 0 for 9 in previous Derby rides.
The Puma scratched from the race with morning line odds of 10-1, leaving a total of 19 horses in contention. Observers are keenly watching which horse Demling will endorse next.
